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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.