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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest field is distinctly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still